Who is returning to public transport for non-work trips after COVID-19? Evidence from older citizens' smart cards in the UK's second largest city region.

Harnessing a unique data source - longitudinal travel smartcard data linked to passenger demographics from 2019 to 2022 - we use methods of survival analysis to model the recovery of public transport patronage among 183,891 senior citizens resident in the West Midlands metropolitan region in the United Kingdom. Comparing pre and peri-pandemic patronage, we identify pronounced social and spatial inequalities in the speed of return to public transport. We find that male, younger and non-White passengers are more likely to return to public transport as soon as movement restrictions were lifted, whereas passengers from White ethnic background and affluent areas do not return to public transport within the first year after the outbreak. Pronounced social inequalities persist into the middle of 2021, and only thence they began to attenuate as part of a wider return to public transport among passengers post retirement age. In 2022, 80% of these passengers have returned to public transport but the frequency of use has remained lower than prior to the pandemic. We discuss implications for transport policy and planning.

Accessibility and Essential Travel: Public Transport Reliance Among Senior Citizens During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Using smart card travel data, we compare demand for bus services by passengers of age 65 or older prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic to identify public transport-reliant users residing in more car-dependent environments-i.e., people who rely on public transport services to carry out essential activities, such as daily shopping and live in areas with low public transport accessibility. Viewing lockdowns as natural experiments, we use spatial analysis combined with multilevel logistic regressions to characterize the demographic and geographic context of those passengers who continued to use public transport services in these areas during lockdown periods, or quickly returned to public transport when restrictions were eased. We find that this particular type of public transport reliance is significantly associated with socio-demographic characteristics alongside urban residential conditions. Specifically, we identify suburban geographies of public transport reliance, which are at risk of being overlooked in approaches that view public transport dependence mainly as an outcome of deprivation. Our research demonstrates once again that inclusive, healthy and sustainable mobility can only be achieved if all areas of metropolitan regions are well and reliably served by public transport.